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Monthly overview

Full overview of Avaron funds - August 2010 (PDF file)


The weakness in global equities in August was reflected with 0.9% decline in Emerging Europe. Majority of the Emerging Europe markets posted negative monthly performance while Balkans and Baltics were a bit more resilient. However, year-to-date Emerging Europe with positive performance has strongly outperformed developed Europe. Avaron Emerging Europe Small Cap Fund delivered 0.8% positive performance in August. Year-to-date the fund is up 6.8%.

Investors' focus during August was largely on the earnings season that in Emerging Europe proved relatively strong. The regional macro developments brought no surprises: household consumption remains weak, while positive dynamics in exports and industrial production have continued.

During August our overall equity exposure and investment level slightly increased. Regionally there was a slight shift from Austria and Romania into Turkey and Poland. These changes have been largely bottom-up driven, however, on macro basis Poland and Turkey are currently the best performing countries in Emerging Europe, and the only ones where domestic demand has been supporting growth alongside with exports.

Valuations in Emerging Europe are appealing, both on absolute and relative basis. Overall companies in Avaron Emerging Europe Small Cap Fund trade at 1.0x book value, 3.9x 2011E EV/EBITDA and offer on average 4.3% dividend yield. Our portfolios today are mostly invested in well-capitalised non-cyclical companies, like telecoms, energy and pharmaceuticals, and high-yielding regional bonds. Higher risk is planted into the portfolio through cyclical companies that are mostly domestic demand driven and asset-driven companies that own agricultural land or are holding companies. Emerging Europe trades overall at 34% discount to global emerging markets on P/B basis.